Lessons of a "Barbenheimer" Summer

By: Calvin Nickelson,

Assistant at Atlas Talent

Another summer, another busy box office season. If you’re anything like me—a lover of the theatrical experience—then the image of Nicole Kidman in her sparkly pantsuit is etched into the back of your eyelids, and you sometimes wake in the middle of the night whispering “heartbreak feels good in a place like this.” But all is not well in the land of AMC and Cinemark. Here are the lessons of the summer box office, and my predictions as an assistant in the industry  for how we’ll see these lessons play out in summers to come.

1. Theaters Need More Premium Screens.

At the heart of the theatrical proposition is the idea that the experience at the movies can’t be captured watching a film at home. Premium screens, the Dolbys and IMAXes of the world, make this argument best—I don’t care how swanky your home setup is; you can’t match the incredible sound and scale of a Dolby screening in your living room. You can see this borne out on any given opening weekend, when premium tickets for even moderately anticipated films are hard to get, but the standard screenings are often near empty. If the average consumer is going to consider making the trek to the theater (a hard sell these days), the experience needs to be definitively superior. One Dolby per theater isn’t going to cut it. Upgrading some of those empty standard screening rooms will be a top priority for the exhibitors.

Prediction: In the next few years, your local multiplex is going to throw up a second or third premium screen… or shut down entirely.

2. Rein In Those Budgets.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one. A movie comes out, makes a good chunk of change at the box office, but it never turns a profit because it was just too expensive to make. Just look at these budgets: $350 million for Fast X (Universal Pictures). $300 million for Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part I (Paramount Pictures) and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Disney) . Nearly the same for The Little Mermaid (2023; Disney). There are a host of reasons we can point to for those movies’ individual underperformances, but quite simply, they cost too much to make. At a Fast X budget, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, undoubtedly a hit for Sony at a touch under $700 million worldwide, would have failed to make a profit.  But because they made it for a reasonable $100 million (and it still looks incredible), it’s a smash.

Prediction: Studio tentpoles are going to become leaner. Whether it’s smaller casts or smaller battle sequences, expect budgets to shrink back to below the $200 million mark.

3. R-Rated Comedies--DOA.

Earlier this year, a few people who watch the movie business were predicting it would be the summer of the comedy. And, in the wake of Barbie being the summer’s biggest hit, perhaps it was. But “adult” comedic fare—the raunchy, risqué pictures—have struggled mightily. Strays (Universal Pictures), Joyride (Lionsgate), and even the star-powered No Hard Feelings (Sony) are all unlikely to turn a profit. Ten years ago, a film with the right cast and solid marketing muscle, like The Hangover II, could crack half a billion. In 2023, none of the adult comedies of the summer have even reached $100 million. Comedies, perhaps more so than other genres, have begun to feel like “streaming” movies.

It’s such a special thing, to laugh at something ridiculous onscreen in a crowded theater. It’s a shame the market for that seems to be drying up.

Prediction: Next summer, look for one last solid attempt—a star-studded, big-budget, raunchy comedy from one of the majors. If that fails, the genre might go the way of the rom-com and head to the streamers for good.

4. Superhero Fatigue Is Real.

Speaking of drying up, it appears audiences have reached their limit on capes and cowls. Pre-pandemic, it looked like superhero movies were the gift that kept on giving. Back in 2019, every Marvel movie released made more than a billion dollars in theaters, even ones starring lesser-known characters like Captain Marvel. Cut to this year, when we started off with the whimper that was Ant-Man: Quantumania, and just last weekend poor Blue Beetle got off to “the softest start in the history of the DC cinematic universe.” And don’t get me started on The Flash. I love comic book movies, and I have long since resigned myself to seeing every flick from DC or Marvel opening weekend, but it’s clear that the era of superhero films as blank checks is over. DC and Marvel will have no choice but to rethink their multiverses and figure out how to create one universe (or two) that audiences find compelling again.

Prediction: Marvel is going to go back to basics, ditching multiverses and maybe coaxing some “retired” stars back onto screens. DC… I don’t think even DC can predict what they’re going to do at this point.  

5. Make It Special, Stupid.

And now we come to the “Barbenheimer” of it all. What made a feminist comedy about a children’s doll and a three-hour long adult drama the biggest hits of the summer? Both are unquestionably great films, but I’d argue quality isn’t the defining factor. There’s an alchemy of specialness here, a communal nerve firing in reaction to something truly fresh. These movies felt distinct from the everyday fare, a category that now seems to include even big-budget sequels like Transformers and Impossible that nevertheless feel same-y. On the other hand, Barbie and Oppenheimer were eventized, made to make you feel out of the loop for missing. In our fractured pop culture landscape, where everyone can live in their own world of niche streaming shows and YouTube videos, the ability to manufacture monoculture is the ultimate currency. Both films were marketed, and marketed well, as must-see events, but I’d argue the strategy only worked because it was true: there’s just nothing else like Barbie or Oppenheimer in theaters right now. The only other bona fide hit of the summer, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, managed a similar feat—albeit among perhaps a nerdier demographic. The takeaway: people will still go to the movies, but you have to make it worth their while and make sure they know it will be worth their while.

Prediction: If studios learn the right lesson here, we’ll see more original films from bold filmmakers made for healthy but reasonable budgets. If they learn the wrong lesson… We’ll get a few years of movies about toys.